Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position and Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past
All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent of him to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
