A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
